Experimental 5 day AI weather summaries for UK nations, focusing on rainfall and coastal conditions. Data via Open-Meteo. Take a detailed look at how this approach works here.
Use with caution and supplement with official guidance from the Met Office, Environment Agency, SEPA, and Natural Resources Wales.
Last updated: Fri 17 Oct 2025 20:45
This forecast covers Friday 17 October 2025 to Tuesday 21 October 2025.
Based on ECMWF deterministic guidance.
Headline: Persistent light rain and drizzle with moderate rain episodes, mainly affecting southern and western areas.
Friday 17 to Saturday 18 October
England and Wales will experience mainly dry and clear conditions overnight Friday into early Saturday, with some patchy drizzle developing in parts of Wales and the South West by late Friday evening. Saturday will see increasing cloud cover with light rain and drizzle spreading across southern and western regions, including South West England and South Wales. Northern and eastern England, along with much of East Anglia, will remain largely dry with mainly clear to partly cloudy skies.
Sunday 19 to Monday 20 October
A more unsettled pattern develops with light to moderate rain affecting much of southern and western England and Wales, particularly South West and South East England, with rainfall totals increasing through Sunday and into Monday. Drizzle and light rain will persist in Wales and the West Midlands. Northern and eastern England will see mainly dry conditions with occasional drizzle. Rainfall amounts are generally light to moderate, with some localized moderate rain in the south.
Tuesday 21 October
Rain and drizzle continue across southern and western England and Wales, with moderate rain possible in the South West and South East. Northern and eastern England remain mostly dry with some patchy drizzle. Overall, rainfall totals remain modest but persistent.
Nothing currently indicated that seems likely to exacerbate or create new flood risk.
Coastal/tidal information
Tidal heights are building towards a peak spring tide through the forecast period. Coastal winds are generally moderate to fresh (Force 4-5), strongest along the south and west coasts during high tides on Monday and Tuesday. No significant wind-tide interactions expected to increase coastal flood risk.
Last updated: Fri 17 Oct 2025 20:43
This forecast covers Friday 17 October 2025 to Tuesday 21 October 2025.
Based on ECMWF deterministic guidance.
Headline: Periods of light rain and drizzle with occasional moderate rain, mainly in southern and western England.
Friday 17 to Sunday 19 October
England will experience mostly dry and mainly clear conditions initially, especially across northern and eastern areas. Light drizzle and patchy drizzle will develop from Saturday into Sunday, particularly affecting southern and western England, including the South West and parts of the Midlands. Rainfall amounts are generally light, but moderate rain is possible locally in the South West on Sunday, with drizzle persisting into the evening. Northern and eastern England remain largely dry with mainly clear or partly cloudy skies.
Monday 20 to Tuesday 21 October
A continuation of light rain and drizzle is expected across much of southern and western England, with some moderate rain episodes, especially in the South West and parts of the Midlands. Eastern and northern England should see mainly dry conditions with occasional drizzle and some clearer spells. Rainfall totals remain modest overall, with no significant heavy or prolonged rain forecast. Cloud cover will be mostly overcast in wetter areas, with some breaks in the east.
Nothing currently indicated that seems likely to exacerbate or create new flood risk.
Coastal/tidal information
The tidal cycle will progress from mid-cycle tides building towards large spring tides through the forecast period. High tides will increase in height, peaking with spring tides on Monday and Tuesday. Coastal winds are generally moderate to fresh (Force 4-5), with occasional gusts reaching strong (Force 6) particularly along the South West and southern coasts during high tides. This wind-tide interaction may enhance wave action and coastal water levels during spring tides but no extreme coastal flooding is anticipated based on current guidance.
Last updated: Fri 17 Oct 2025 20:44
This forecast covers Friday 17 October 2025 to Tuesday 21 October 2025.
Based on ECMWF deterministic guidance.
Headline: Periods of light rain and drizzle with moderate rain developing late in the period, especially in southern and western Wales.
Friday 17 to Sunday 19 October
Wales will experience mainly dry and clear to partly cloudy conditions on Friday, with little to no rainfall across all regions. Temperatures will be mild, and cloud cover generally low. From Saturday into Sunday, a gradual increase in cloudiness will occur, with light drizzle and occasional light rain developing, particularly in western and southern parts of Wales. Rainfall amounts remain light to moderate, with drizzle more widespread and persistent in coastal and lowland areas. Northern and eastern Wales will see less precipitation, with mainly dry conditions prevailing.
Monday 20 to Tuesday 21 October
Rainfall intensity increases from Monday, with moderate rain expected to develop, especially across southern and western Wales. Drizzle and light rain will continue in northern and eastern areas but with less intensity. Rainfall totals will be higher during this period, raising the potential for localized surface water accumulation. Cloud cover will remain extensive, with overcast skies dominating. Winds will strengthen, particularly along the coast, contributing to unsettled conditions.
Nothing currently indicated that seems likely to exacerbate or create new flood risk.
Coastal/tidal information
The tidal cycle is building towards spring tides through the forecast period, reaching peak spring tides by Tuesday evening. Coastal winds are forecast to strengthen to Force 4-5 (moderate to fresh breeze) during high tide periods, especially on Monday and Tuesday evenings. This wind-tide interaction may enhance wave action along the coast but no extreme wind gusts are expected to coincide with high tides. Overall, coastal flood risk remains low given the absence of strong gale-force winds during peak tides.
Last updated: Fri 17 Oct 2025 20:44
This forecast covers Friday 17 October 2025 to Tuesday 21 October 2025.
Based on ECMWF deterministic guidance.
Headline: Predominantly dry with light drizzle and occasional light rain, increasing in northern and eastern areas late in the period.
Friday 17 to Sunday 19 October
Scotland will experience mainly dry and settled conditions initially, with mainly clear to partly cloudy skies across most regions. Light drizzle is expected intermittently, especially in eastern and northern areas, but rainfall amounts remain low. Temperatures will be mild for mid-October. Light rain and drizzle will become more frequent by Sunday, particularly in northern and eastern parts, with light rain totals reaching a few millimeters. Western and southern areas remain largely dry with occasional cloud cover.
Monday 20 to Tuesday 21 October
Rainfall will increase in intensity and coverage, especially across northern and eastern Scotland where light to moderate rain is forecast. Drizzle and light rain will persist in central and southern areas, with some overcast spells. Rain totals may reach moderate levels locally in the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday, but heavy rain is not expected. Conditions will remain mostly dry and clear in western coastal and island regions. Winds will generally be light to moderate, with no significant snowmelt impact.
Nothing currently indicated that seems likely to exacerbate or create new flood risk.
Coastal/tidal information
Tidal heights will build through the period, reaching peak spring tides by Tuesday evening. These tides are moderate in size but not large springs. Coastal winds are forecast to be mostly light to moderate (Force 2-4), with occasional fresh gusts (Force 5) mainly along northern and eastern coasts during Monday and Tuesday high tides. No strong wind-tide interactions likely to significantly elevate coastal flood risk. Overall, tidal and wind conditions are not expected to cause notable coastal flooding.