Forecast Summary
Experimental 5-day AI weather summaries for UK nations, focusing on flood-risk rainfall and coastal conditions. Data via Open-Meteo (ECMWF & UKMO deterministic models). Take a detailed look at how this approach works in this article.
Key Limitations:
- AI summaries: Not human-reviewed; use carefully.
- Deterministic models: Limited uncertainty shown.
- No hydrology: Lacks ground/river condition data.
- Regional synthesis: Local variations may not be captured.
Informational only; may contain inaccuracies. Always use with caution and supplement with official advice from the Met Office, Environment Agency, SEPA, and Natural Resources Wales.
This forecast covers the period from Monday 19 May 2025 to Sunday 25 May 2025.
This forecast is based on ECMWF IFS and UKMO Global deterministic model guidance.
Monday 19 May to Wednesday 21 May
Dry and settled conditions dominate across England and Wales with only isolated light showers in parts of South West and South East England. Temperatures remain mild, and no significant rainfall is expected.
Thursday 22 May to Sunday 25 May
A change occurs with increasing light to moderate rain developing from Thursday afternoon, spreading from the south-west across much of England and Wales by Friday. Rainfall is generally light but becomes moderate in South West England and parts of Wales by Saturday, with some heavier bursts possible in western areas. Northern and eastern regions remain mostly dry. Sunday sees a decrease in rain, with mainly dry conditions returning.
Coastal/tidal information
Tides are currently at neap levels but will gradually build towards moderate spring tides by Saturday and Sunday. No large spring tides are expected during this period. Coastal winds are generally light to moderate (Force 3-5), with no strong wind–tide interactions anticipated at high tide times.
Nothing currently indicated that seems likely to exacerbate or create new flood risk.
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This forecast covers the period from Monday 19 May 2025 to Sunday 25 May 2025. This forecast is based on ECMWF IFS and UKMO Global deterministic model guidance.
Monday 19 May to Wednesday 21 May
Dry conditions prevail across Wales with only isolated light showers mainly in the south-west and coastal Pembrokeshire. Rainfall is generally light or absent, with the driest conditions in North and Mid Wales. Winds remain moderate to fresh, particularly along coasts, but no heavy rainfall is expected.
Thursday 22 May to Sunday 25 May
Rainfall increases from Thursday, becoming moderate to locally heavy by Friday and Saturday, especially in south-west and western coastal areas including Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion. North Wales and inland areas will see lighter, more intermittent rain. Sunday sees a reduction to light rain or showers. Winds strengthen to fresh to strong breeze (Force 5-6) mainly in coastal zones, coinciding with higher tides.
Coastal/tidal information
Tides are currently at neap levels but will build steadily towards moderate spring tides by the weekend. No large spring tides are forecast during this period. Coastal winds are forecast to reach fresh to strong breeze (Force 5-6) during high tides on Friday and Saturday, particularly along south and west coasts, which may enhance local coastal flood risk in vulnerable locations.
Possibility of increased flood risk based on forecast conditions.
This forecast covers the period from Monday 19 May 2025 to Sunday 25 May 2025.
This forecast is based on ECMWF IFS and UKMO Global deterministic model guidance.
Monday 19 May 2025
Dry conditions prevail across Scotland with light winds. Temperatures rise through the day, with no significant rainfall expected anywhere. Coastal winds generally remain moderate to fresh breeze (Force 4-5), particularly in western and northern coastal areas.
Tuesday 20 May 2025
Continued dry weather with light to moderate winds. Temperatures peak in the afternoon, especially in central and eastern regions. No rainfall is forecast. Coastal winds remain mostly moderate, with no strong wind–tide interactions expected.
Wednesday 21 May 2025
Dry and settled conditions persist throughout the day. Winds remain light to moderate, with no significant precipitation. Temperatures remain mild. Coastal winds are moderate, posing no enhanced risk with tides.
Thursday 22 May 2025
Dry conditions continue with light to moderate winds. Temperatures steady or slightly cooler. No rainfall expected. Coastal winds remain moderate, with no notable wind–tide concerns.
Friday 23 May to Sunday 25 May 2025
Tides begin building towards spring tides from Friday onwards, increasing into the weekend. Rainfall increases from late Friday into Saturday, with moderate to locally heavy showers mainly affecting western and northern Scotland, including the Highlands and Western Isles. Sunday sees a reduction in rain but some light showers persist. Coastal winds strengthen to fresh to strong breeze (Force 5-6) at times, particularly during high tides on Saturday and Sunday, increasing potential for wind–tide interaction along exposed coasts.
Coastal/tidal information
Tides are currently at neap levels but will build towards moderate spring tides through the weekend. Coastal winds are generally moderate (Force 4-5) early in the week, increasing to fresh to strong breeze (Force 5-6) by Saturday and Sunday. These stronger winds coincide with higher tides, especially along western and northern coasts, raising the risk of coastal flooding or erosion in vulnerable areas.
Nothing currently indicated that seems likely to exacerbate or create new flood risk.